Economic activity indexes are indexes which attempt to provide an overall look at the state of the economy.
The Business Formation Statistics provide timely and high frequency information on new business applications and formations in the United States.
Major Business Formation Statistics Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
US Business Applications | Dec 2024 | 457544.0 | 1.51% |
US Business Applications from Corporations | Dec 2024 | 59731.00 | -7.47% |
US Business Applications with Planned Wages | Dec 2024 | 47014.00 | 3.55% |
US High-Propensity Business Applications | Dec 2024 | 156331.0 | -1.15% |
US Projected Business Formations within Eight Quarters | Dec 2024 | 39870.00 | 2.71% |
US Projected Business Formations within Four Quarters | Dec 2024 | 28834.00 | 2.64% |
US Spliced Business Formations within Eight Quarters | Dec 2024 | 39870.00 | 2.71% |
US Spliced Business Formations within Four Quarters | Dec 2024 | 28834.00 | 2.64% |
The balance of international payments covers all economic transactions between Canadian residents and non-residents in three accounts: the current account, the capital account and the financial account.
Major Canada Balance of International Payments Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
Canada Balance of Taxes | Q3 2024 | 3.818B CAD | -0.88% |
Canada Balance on Commercial Services | Q3 2024 | 1.894B CAD | -23.44% |
Canada Balance on Compensation of Employees | Q3 2024 | -3.058B CAD | -- |
Canada Balance on Goods | Q3 2024 | -3.622B CAD | -- |
Canada Balance on Goods and Services | Q3 2024 | -3.134B CAD | -- |
Canada Balance on Government Services | Q3 2024 | -58.00M CAD | -- |
Canada Balance on Investment Income | Q3 2024 | 4.226B CAD | 160.7% |
Canada Balance on Primary Income | Q3 2024 | 1.168B CAD | -- |
Canada Balance on Services | Q3 2024 | 488.00M CAD | -75.04% |
Canada Balance on Transportation | Q3 2024 | -3.601B CAD | -- |
Canada Balance on Travel | Q3 2024 | 2.253B CAD | -30.29% |
Canada Current Account Balance | Q3 2024 | -3.229B CAD | -- |
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index is a monthly index designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure.
Major Chicago Fed National Activity Report Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
Chicago Fed National Activity Index | Dec 2024 | 0.15 | -- |
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (3 Month Moving Average) | Dec 2024 | -0.13 | -- |
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Employment, Unemployment and Hours | Dec 2024 | 0.01 | 0.00% |
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Personal Consumption and Housing | Dec 2024 | -0.02 | -- |
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Production and Income | Dec 2024 | 0.19 | 533.3% |
Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Sales, Orders, Inventories | Dec 2024 | -0.02 | -- |
The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) is a survey of organizations located in the Seventh Federal Reserve District. The goal of the survey is to assess the state of the economy in the Seventh Federal Reserve District, which is served by the Chicago Fed. The Chicago Fed produces diffusion indexes based on the quantitative questions in the survey.
Major Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions Activity Index | Jan 2025 | -9.211 | -- |
Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions Capital Spending Expectations Index | Jan 2025 | 0.00 | -- |
Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions Current Hiring Index | Jan 2025 | -29.19 | -- |
Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions Hiring Expectations Index | Jan 2025 | -6.780 | -- |
Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions Manufacturing Activity Index | Jan 2025 | 3.175 | -- |
Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions Nonmanufacturing Activity Index | Jan 2025 | -8.989 | -- |
Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions Outlook for US Economy Index | Jan 2025 | 25.38 | -37.82% |
The Index of Business Conditions are summary measures for aggregate economic activity. They are designed to be a useful tool for analyzing current conditions, and for forecasting future economic conditions.
Major ESRI Index of Business Conditions Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
Japan Business Conditions Coincident Diffusion Index | Nov 2024 | 88.90 | 33.28% |
Japan Business Conditions Composite Coincident Index | Nov 2024 | 115.40 | -1.20% |
Japan Business Conditions Composite Lagging Index | Nov 2024 | 108.10 | 0.37% |
Japan Business Conditions Composite Leading Index | Nov 2024 | 107.50 | -1.47% |
Japan Business Conditions Cumulated Coincident Diffusion Index | Nov 2024 | 88.90 | 33.28% |
Japan Business Conditions Cumulated Lagging Diffusion Index | Nov 2024 | 56.30 | 12.60% |
Japan Business Conditions Cumulated Leading Diffusion Index | Nov 2024 | 60.00 | 0.00% |
Japan Business Conditions Lagging Diffusion Index | Nov 2024 | 56.30 | 12.60% |
Japan Business Conditions Leading Diffusion Index | Nov 2024 | 60.00 | 0.00% |
The European Economic Sentiment Indicator is a part of the business and consumer surveys conducted by the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs for different sectors of the economies in the European Union and in the applicant countries.
Major European Economic Sentiment Indicator Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
Belgium Economic Sentiment Indicator | Jan 2025 | 93.20 | 4.72% |
Czech Republic Economic Sentiment Indicator | Jan 2025 | 95.90 | -0.42% |
Eurozone Consumer Confidence Indicator | Jan 2025 | -14.20 | -- |
Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator | Jan 2025 | 95.30 | 1.60% |
Eurozone Industry Confidence Indicator | Jan 2025 | -12.90 | -- |
France Economic Sentiment Indicator | Jan 2025 | 96.20 | 3.55% |
Germany Economic Sentiment Indicator | Jan 2025 | 88.10 | 1.38% |
Greece Economic Sentiment Indicator | Jan 2025 | 108.60 | 2.07% |
Italy Economic Sentiment Indicator | Jan 2025 | 100.20 | 1.83% |
Netherlands Economic Sentiment Indicator | Jan 2025 | 99.60 | -0.80% |
Poland Economic Sentiment Indicator | Jan 2025 | 97.10 | -2.02% |
Portugal Economic Sentiment Indicator | Jan 2025 | 107.20 | 0.19% |
Spain Economic Sentiment Indicator | Jan 2025 | 104.40 | 1.46% |
The OECD system of composite leading indicators was developed in the 1970’s to give early signals of turning points of economic activity. This information is of prime importance for economists, businesses and policy makers to enable timely analysis of the current and short-term economic situation.
Major OECD Composite Leading Indicators Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
Composite Leading Indicator: Canada | Nov 2024 | 100.46 | 0.28% |
Composite Leading Indicator: China | Nov 2024 | 100.09 | 0.16% |
Composite Leading Indicator: France | Nov 2024 | 99.48 | 0.05% |
Composite Leading Indicator: G20 | Nov 2024 | 100.41 | 0.10% |
Composite Leading Indicator: Germany | Dec 2024 | 100.11 | -0.07% |
Composite Leading Indicator: Italy | Nov 2024 | 100.40 | 0.20% |
Composite Leading Indicator: Japan | Nov 2024 | 100.06 | -0.01% |
Composite Leading Indicator: Spain | Dec 2024 | 100.39 | 0.18% |
Composite Leading Indicator: United Kingdom | Dec 2024 | 101.54 | -0.05% |
Composite Leading Indicator: United States | Nov 2024 | 100.39 | 0.16% |
The Office of Economic Analysis provides objective forecasts of the state's economy, revenue, population, corrections population, and Youth Authority population. These forecasts are used by the Governor, the Legislature, state agencies, and the public to achieve their goals.
Major Oregon Economic Forecast Indicators
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia produces a monthly coincident index for each of the 50 states. The Bank issues a release each month describing recent trends in the state indexes, with special coverage of the three states in the Third District: Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware.
Major Philly Fed Coincident Index Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
Philly Fed Delaware Coincident Index | Dec 2024 | 142.10 | 0.72% |
Philly Fed New Jersey Coincident Index | Dec 2024 | 140.98 | 0.19% |
Philly Fed Pennsylvania Coincident Index | Dec 2024 | 133.62 | 0.03% |
Philly Fed US Coincident Index | Dec 2024 | 146.19 | 0.32% |
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia produces leading indexes monthly and are usually released a week after the release of the coincident indexes. The Bank issues a release each month describing the current and future economic situation of the 50 states with special coverage of the Third District: Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware.
Major Philly Fed Leading Index Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
Philly Fed Delaware Leading Index | Feb 2020 | 1.91% | 37.92% |
Philly Fed New Jersey Leading Index | Feb 2020 | 1.19% | -4.77% |
Philly Fed Pennsylvania Leading Index | Feb 2020 | 0.90% | 44.66% |
Philly Fed US Leading Index | Feb 2020 | 1.72% | 9.25% |
The Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (NBOS) is a monthly survey of nonmanufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their firms, including new orders, sales or revenues, employment, prices, and capital expenditures. Respondents also provide their assessments of general business conditions over the next six months.
Major Philly Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
Philly Fed Nonmanufacturing Company Activity Index | Jan 2025 | 2.20 | -52.17% |
Philly Fed Nonmanufacturing Future Company Activity Index | Jan 2025 | 25.80 | -36.45% |
Philly Fed Nonmanufacturing Future Region Activity Index | Jan 2025 | 26.20 | -42.92% |
Philly Fed Nonmanufacturing New Orders Index | Jan 2025 | 1.60 | -- |
Philly Fed Nonmanufacturing Number of Full-time Employees Index | Jan 2025 | 1.50 | -53.12% |
Philly Fed Nonmanufacturing Number of Part-time or Temporary Employees Index | Jan 2025 | -0.30 | -- |
Philly Fed Nonmanufacturing Prices Paid Index | Jan 2025 | 28.90 | -6.17% |
Philly Fed Nonmanufacturing Prices Received Index | Jan 2025 | -0.30 | -- |
Philly Fed Nonmanufacturing Region Activity Index | Jan 2025 | -9.10 | -- |
Philly Fed Nonmanufacturing Sales Index | Jan 2025 | 2.60 | -18.75% |
Major Sahm Rule Recession Indicator Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator | Dec 2024 | 0.40% | -6.98% |
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator | Dec 2024 | 0.40% | 0.00% |
NFIB Research Center has collected Small Business Economic Trends Data with Quarterly surveys since 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. The sample is drawn from the membership files of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).
Major Small Business Optimism Index Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
Small Business Optimism Index | Dec 2024 | 105.10 | 3.34% |
Small Business Outlook: Business Conditions | Dec 2024 | 52.00% | 44.44% |
Small Business Outlook: Expansion | Dec 2024 | 20.00% | 42.86% |
Small Business Uncertainty Index | Dec 2024 | 86.00 | -12.24% |
The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took over the survey in 1990.
Major Survey of Professional Forecasters Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
Median Forecasts for CPI Inflation Rate | Q1 2026 | 2.27% | 0.89% |
Median Forecasts for Housing Starts | Q4 2025 | 2.58% | -49.31% |
Median Forecasts for Industrial Production Index | Q4 2025 | 1.81% | 7.10% |
Median Forecasts for Nonfarm Payroll Employment Growth Rate | Q4 2025 | 0.96% | 11.63% |
Median Forecasts for PCE Inflation Rate | Q1 2026 | 2.10% | 0.00% |
Median Forecasts for Real GDP | Q4 2025 | 2.00% | -9.91% |
Median Forecasts for Real Personal Consumption Expenditures | Q4 2025 | 1.69% | -29.58% |
The Texas Business-Cycle Index is published monthly and calculated using payroll employment, gross state product, and the unemployment rate.
Major Texas Business-Cycle Indexes Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
Austin-Round Rock, TX Business-Cycle Index | Nov 2024 | 894.51 | 0.29% |
Brownsville-Harlingen, TX Business-Cycle Index | Nov 2024 | 385.81 | 0.25% |
Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX Business-Cycle Index | Nov 2024 | 692.68 | 0.04% |
El Paso, TX Business-Cycle Index | Nov 2024 | 372.45 | -0.10% |
Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Business-Cycle Index | Nov 2024 | 492.13 | 0.14% |
Houston-Sugar Land, TX Business-Cycle Index | Nov 2024 | 355.17 | 0.09% |
Laredo, TX Business-Cycle Index | Nov 2024 | 372.68 | 0.14% |
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX Business-Cycle Index | Nov 2024 | 349.38 | -0.28% |
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Business-Cycle Index | Nov 2024 | 438.30 | 0.14% |
Texas Business-Cycle Index | Nov 2024 | 459.86 | 0.24% |
The Texas Leading Index provides information on the future of Texas's economy. It is comprised of eight leading indicators which tend to change direction before the overall economy. These indicators include the Texas value of the dollar, the US leading index, real oil price, well permits, initial claims for unemployment insurance, the Texas stock index, help-wanted index, and the average weekly hours worked in manufacturing.
Major Texas Leading Index Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
Texas Leading Index | Dec 2024 | 125.86 | 0.29% |
Texas Leading Index Annual Average | 2024 | 127.09 | -1.23% |
Texas Leading Index Annual Average YoY | 2024 | -1.23% | -- |
Texas Leading Index Change from Previous Year | 2024 | -1.05% Chg Yr | -- |
US Recession Probabilities (Chauvet and Piger) are the smoothed probabilities of a recession in the US. They are calculated from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model on non-farm payroll employment, industrial production index, real personal income, and real manufacturing and trade sales.
Major US Recession Probabilities - Chauvet and Piger Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
US Recession Probability | Dec 2024 | 0.14% | 0.00% |
US Recession Probabilities (Estrella and Mishkin) is predicted twelve months ahead through a model which uses the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates.
Major US Recession Probabilities - Estrella and Mishkin Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
US Recession Probability | Dec 2025 | 29.40% | -12.41% |
The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) provides a signal of the state of the U.S. economy based on data available at a daily or weekly frequency. It represents the common component of ten different daily and weekly series covering consumer behavior, the labor market, and production.
Major Weekly Economic Index (WEI) Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
US Weekly Economic Index | Jan 25 2025 | 2.82 | 1.08% |
The World Economic Outlook from the IMF contains data concerning the debt, lending and borrowing of major nations around the world.
Major World Economic Outlook Indicators
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is calculated from the results of the ZEW Financial Market Survey. It is constructed as the difference between the percentage share of analysts that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic for the German economy in six months.
Major ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment Indicators
Indicator | Period | Value | % CHG PREV |
ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany | Jan 2025 | 10.30 | -34.39% |
Upcoming Reports
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Feb 6 2025, 11:30 EST | |
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